Re:Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was 'superspreading event,' cost...
by hn_throwaway_99 on Wednesday September 09, 2020 @01:39AM
(#24417569)
Replying to my own comment, I found the paper where they got the 11k from, it's page 7 on this link: http://ftp.iza.org/dp13632.pdf.
This analysis is complete, utter, and total bullshit. They took a "value per statistical life" number of $11 million, then pulled a semi random 0.3% out of their ass to account for an $11k cost per asymptomatic case. At no point did they actually attempt to account anywhere for the true cost of treating (or, in this case not treating) an asymptomatic case.
These numbers are complete garbage.
However, if it is the case that the authors did use that estimate for a per-asymptomatic case cost, then I think it's perfectly valid to throw out the rest of the paper as nonsense. I mean, the only reason anyone is talking about this paper at all is because the top-line number is so outrageously high. If a fundamental calculation going into that number is that patently ridiculous, I don't care if you have 15 pages or 1500 pages, adding more pages of numbers can't get around the absurdity of the underlying primary assumption.