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Re:Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Falls Short of Its... by Retric on Saturday September 05, 2020 @09:06PM (#24388135)
Self driving can and likely will eventually save lives. The medical world deals with the same basic issue constantly and neither reckless behavior or extreme caution is the answer. At best you can model how much of a reduction in the 1.35 million people die in road accidents worldwide every year / 3,700 deaths a day offsets moving more quickly.

If we are talking an eventual 10% reduction waiting just 1 year costs ~130,000 lives. On the other hand if mistakes slows long term adoption that’s also harmful.

PS: Adoption curves etc are also import, but that’s what I mean by mistakes slowing adoption.

Re:Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Falls Short of Its... by heavyset_go on Saturday September 05, 2020 @09:19PM (#24388200)
> Self driving can and likely will eventually save lives.

And yet there is no evidence of these assertions other than wishful thinking.

There is no evidence that self-driving systems are safer than humans, so there is no reason to treat them as if they are. In fact, compared to other luxury vehicles, Tesla vehicles are involved in more accidents.

The medical world is extremely conservative. The FDA has incredibly high standards to meet, thankfully, and demands ample scientific evidence for the medicines and treatments it approves.

"Move fast and break things" doesn't exist in the medical world, but it does exist outside of it in the form of unregulated supplements and illegal procedures and distribution of medication. People are routinely made into victims of this market just so someone can make a quick buck.

Re:Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Falls Short of Its... by Retric on Sunday September 06, 2020 @12:36AM (#24389009)
If we knew the results it wouldn’t be research. Medical research is dealing with potential future solutions to known problems. The risk is from a drug that’s either useless or actively harmful. Saying we don’t know if self driving cars are eventually going to be better is therefore no different than considering a new vaccine.

Anyway, move fast and break things is ingrained into the core of the medical profession when there is an unmet medical need.

The FDA for example has: Accelerated Approval, Fast track designation, Breakthrough therapy designation, and Priority Review all designed to speed things up when the benefits are significant.

They don’t apply for new pain medication because the risk vs reward is very different. 2014: https://www.fda.gov/media/94063/download

PS: I think we can agree that in terms of car safety there is clearly a large unmet need. That’s not to say self driving is the solution, just that it’s a serious contender.

Re:Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Falls Short of Its... by 6gvONxR4sf7o on Saturday September 05, 2020 @09:27PM (#24388230)
If you want to make the case that being less conservative will be better in the long run, you have to make the case that you're definitely on the right track, and doing it in a riskier way will speed up the eventual solution. You might accidentally go down the wrong path full steam and cost more lives, or just plateau in a dangerous way.

If I offer you an untested unreliable cancer cure, on the grounds that moving slowly kills more in the long run, I'm likely to make things worse by putting out a non-cure. We could do some really fucked up human experimentation to save more lives in the long run, but that's not the ethics we've collectively agreed on.

Re:Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Falls Short of Its... by Retric on Sunday September 06, 2020 @12:51AM (#24389065)
We do some rather twisted things in medical research. Handing out placebo’s is a critical part of research, but consider what that means for a serious medical condition.

Informed consent is a really big deal, but not a blanket exception for anything. Compensated participation for example is tricky. That’s the kind of issues that make medical ethics a complex subject and there are often difficult choices to be made.

Re:Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Falls Short of Its... by sumedh on Saturday September 05, 2020 @09:29PM (#24388239)
> If we are talking an eventual 10% reduction waiting just 1 year costs ~130,000 lives.

Do you have a source for this claim?

Re:Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Falls Short of Its... by jml7c5 on Saturday September 05, 2020 @09:32PM (#24388265)
Not who you're replying to, but see here:

https://www.who.int/gho/road_safety/mortality/en/

Re:Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Falls Short of Its... by sumedh on Saturday September 05, 2020 @09:47PM (#24388345)
Which link specifically?