SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally

Re:SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally by bryananderson on Saturday September 05, 2020 @01:21PM (#24385231)

This is a misunderstanding of the EMH. “Efficient” does not mean “rational” or “always right”. It simply means that, at any time, the difference between actual prices and “rational” prices is random.

It’s important to understand that efficiency is something that markets approximate. The EMH may be more “true” for you than for someone with a dedicated fiber line between the NYSE and the CME.

Here’s Burton Malkiel in more depth about what the EMH actually means: https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2014/06/13/what-does-the-...

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Re:SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally by woeirua on Saturday September 05, 2020 @04:38PM (#24386680)

That actually reinforces my point. For bubbles to occur, the delta between the price and the “rational” price must not be random. In bubbles prices exhibit strong temporal autocorrelation.

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Re:SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally by MiroF on Monday September 07, 2020 @11:55AM (#24400250)

Assuming bubbles are real, which is somewhat unprovable. There are careful ways to falsify different formulations of the EMH.

"Bubbles" is not one.

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