Re:The First Randomized Controlled Trial on Vitamin D and Co...
by zamfi on Friday September 04, 2020 @03:15AM
(#24372518)
That is quite a spike! Unfortunately the sharpness of the edge makes it pretty likely that a change in therapy is the cause -- time to death from hospital admission has a median of 10-12 days, but this is not a "wall", it's a median. The actual distribution is probably somewhat normal -- you'd expect a gradual increase and decrease around the intervention. We don't know how or when the Hydroxychloroquine was administered, but the mechanism of action seems to be prevention of infection early in the course of infection, generally before hospitalization.
To me, this seems more likely coincidental or a reporting change.
I posted this a few days ago and got an interesting swing of votes on that comment since then:
> So, unfortunately, we don't know very much about Hydroxychloroquine's effectiveness and risks in use
For effectiveness it looks like we actually do, thanks to an experiment Switzerland accidentally ran on their population over May and June [0]. On May 27, they banned use of hydroxychloroquine, and 13 days later the death rate among resolved cases nearly tripled. Just after the spike began, on June 11 they reversed the ban and 13 days later the death rate drops back down. The graph from that article [1] is very stark, comparing the rate from late March through early July.
[0] http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/covid-19-hydroxychlor...
[1] http://www.francesoir.fr/sites/francesoir/files/20200713_fs_...