So the evidence against your claim is literally within the talk.
I could understand a CPP committee member expecting a certain compiler to optimize a certain situation; however, the blanket statement that "smart pointer X is zero-cost" is more than strange, given the fact that it's always bound to be implementation-dependent, and there isn't one single C++ compiler (or even a "canonical" one) so that you could make that claim, at all. I find it really suspicious.
[edit] I watched the part of the talk - I think he was a bit surprised that has favorite compiler didn't perform that optimization, and it took him some investigation to see why. I don't think he truly expects smart pointers to be "zero-cost abstractions", I think he was just surprised that his compiler didn't optimize better that particular situation and had to dig in to find why. I still find the whole presentation a bit of a misleading stunt - there _are_ zero-cost abstractions (for some definitions of "cost" of course; and/or in some situations). E.g. in rust [1]. And even in C++ - a local unique_ptr is _probably_ a zero-cost abstraction!
BTW.. in his example - just use move semantics, put the pointer as the 5th argument, and you'll probably have the same runtime cost (ie both the raw pointer and smart pointer methods will compile to same code; since the ABI no longer allows you to pass the raw pointer via registers, it goes to the stack, so you have the additional load that bothered him in the raw pointer case, too).
[1] https://medium.com/ingeniouslysimple/rust-zero-cost-abstract...
He talks about this. C++ doesn't have destructive moves like rust does, which is the root cause of why you cannot make the unique_ptr cost zero. It'd take an ABI change to fix this. This is precisely why the scenario is interesting. A lot of people (including you) thought that "just use move semantics" would solve it.
There are indeed cases where this sort of difference in performance matters; But those are a vanishingly small group of people; and as far as those people are concerned - they typically look at assembly anyway.
He addresses this in the QA at the end. Chandler explicitly says "I still believe you should use unique_ptr and pass it by value". If somebody watches this video and takes away "don't use smart pointers" then they weren't paying attention.
It won't break reasonable code. The problem is it breaks interop with compiled binaries.
I think you're confusing my proposal with the pass-in-register proposal? Or maybe I'm missing something.
I don't understand the question (I didn't use the word "nobody"). I stand by the first claim (library writers & ISO C++ commitee never claimed that smart pointers are zero-cost abstractions; so why would people believe that? How did that claim start?).
The second (rhetoric) question... well, of course people would occasionally believe random stuff, for God's sake, we have (non-stupid!) people who believe COVID is a conspiracy. That said - there's no basis in the belief that smart pointers are zero-cost, so it's funny to make a talk "debunking" it - to me it looks similar to a talk that "COVID is real, guys!". I was genuinely surprised this talk is needed. I think if this is really a wide-spread belief, a more insightful talk would be about how it got to be a wide-spread belief :)