The known facts are that the most prominent critic and opposition to the Russian dictator was poisoned in a situation that is highly similar to previous incidents that are confirmed Russian.

Considering Putin has had journalists and opposition leaders killed before, and the Russian government tried to prevent the opposition from leaving the country or seeing outside doctors, one has to choose an answer which makes the least assumptions:

* Would the Russian dictator once again attempt to murder his most prominent critic?

* Or would the German government... falsify the poisoning, even though he was hospitalized... as a false flag... but domestic inside of Russia... during a period where the West is collapsing and USA is run by someone who is likely under Russian control meaning triggering Russia into conflict would be to do so during a period when you are least likely to be backed up by the only other nuclear power with a capable enough triad to M.A.D./stalemate it out?

You can make the assumptions you want, but man your route seems to make a lot more of them.