I'm far from an expert, but I would not expect hand-written Rust code to outperform Numpy. Not because it's Rust and Numpy is written in C, but because Numpy has been deeply optimized over many years by many people and your custom code would not have been. When it comes to performance Rust is generally comparable to C++, as a baseline. It's not going to give you some dramatic advantage that offsets the code-maturity factor.

Now, if you're doing lots of computation in Python itself - not within the confines of Numpy - that's where you might see a significant speed boost. Again, I don't know precisely how Rust and Cython would compare, but I would very much expect Rust to be significantly faster, just as I would very much expect C++ to be significantly faster.