Re:Tell HN: AGI Will Be Underwhelming
by keiferski on Wednesday August 26, 2020 @05:58AM
(#24280932)
I’d say we are at the beginning of a lot of technological trends, trends that will span centuries, and we don’t quite understand how they will play out.
AGI probably won’t get really interesting until 50-100-150 years from now. Ditto for stuff like space travel, self-driving cars or social media.
I’d also question your assertion that the iPhone wasn’t a revolutionary change; we simply haven’t understood the full implications of mobile computing and mobile access to a global network. Remember that the Internet has only been around in a consumer form for roughly 20-25 years. This is an incredibly short period of time, compared to say, the printing press or the steam engine, and we’ve already seen society completely transformed.
AGI probably won’t get really interesting until 50-100-150 years from now. Ditto for stuff like space travel, self-driving cars or social media.
I’d also question your assertion that the iPhone wasn’t a revolutionary change; we simply haven’t understood the full implications of mobile computing and mobile access to a global network. Remember that the Internet has only been around in a consumer form for roughly 20-25 years. This is an incredibly short period of time, compared to say, the printing press or the steam engine, and we’ve already seen society completely transformed.