Re:Why You Will Marry the Wrong Person (2016)
by burfog on Saturday August 29, 2020 @10:36PM
(#24320914)
There is a math interpretation error, but it isn't that.
The actual error is that some people keep coming back. Most people don't get a divorce, but some people skew the numbers by getting 2, 3, 4, or more divorces.
Re:Why You Will Marry the Wrong Person (2016)
by ebg13 on Monday August 24, 2020 @11:02AM
(#24261340)
> If you dig into the data, you'll see it's closer to "100 marriages this year, 50 divorces -- omg half of marriages end in divorce!" This is only true if there were zero existing, previous marriages before this year.
Ok, but your objection is only true if there were zero divorces in previous years. If the divorce count is half of the marriage count for the year every year, then it is indeed half.
Re:Why You Will Marry the Wrong Person (2016)
by viridian on Monday August 24, 2020 @12:51PM
(#24262527)
Not if the delta of both counts decrease, which is exactly the point the person you replied to already made. Divorce lags marriage by definition, since you can't get divorced without getting married.
It's more subtle than that. If you dig into the data, you'll see it's closer to "100 marriages this year, 50 divorces -- omg half of marriages end in divorce!"
This is only true if there were zero existing, previous marriages before this year.
The more common trend now is that people just aren't getting married, likely in small part because of this mathematical+reporting malpractice. When you convince people something usually fails, they don't bother trying.