Linux, Wikipedia and a number of other proves this is not the entire story.
If the new <x> is good/fast/cheap enough people will sometimes start using it.
Often this is gets great help from the incumbent solution being either really bad and/or slow and/or expensive.
This way of thinking is not just not entirely correct but more importantly it is demotivating. Maybe what we do won't succeed but for me it sure beats watching more TV :-)
I agree on the second point, but it's more by accident in my opinion. If the technical solution leads to people finding it easier or cheaper to do something, they'll adopt it. Whether it's new, good, pristine, perfect, free & open etc, doesn't matter. It has to make their life easier, save them time and/or money or otherwise enhance the experience, that's what counts.
But new technology has had a dramatic impact on societies in the past, disrupting monopolies, creating new ones, confronting society with new choices, opportunities and challenges.
Technology can force a rethink. It cannot force outcomes.