Re:How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
by jerf on Friday August 21, 2020 @12:25PM
(#24236263)
Mileage varied significantly on those. I haven't seen a lot of evidence that better participation led to proportionately better outcomes.
Besides, lockdowns, which have never really been done like this before, may just be something that can not work. You can't suddenly demand that everyone in a society be in the 80%th percentile of conscientiousness, and also be just hunky dory with not going to work anymore and being under effective house arrest for extended periods of time.
This is probably one of those cases where HN is not equipped to make an accurate assessment, being exceedingly preferentially chosen from high conscientiousness and college-educated populations (as, if nothing else, college indicates a certain amount of discipline). If you project yourself and your peers out onto society, you are going to grossly misunderstand the real society. Plans to avoid contagion need to deal with the society that we have, not the one we want.
Besides, lockdowns, which have never really been done like this before, may just be something that can not work. You can't suddenly demand that everyone in a society be in the 80%th percentile of conscientiousness, and also be just hunky dory with not going to work anymore and being under effective house arrest for extended periods of time.
This is probably one of those cases where HN is not equipped to make an accurate assessment, being exceedingly preferentially chosen from high conscientiousness and college-educated populations (as, if nothing else, college indicates a certain amount of discipline). If you project yourself and your peers out onto society, you are going to grossly misunderstand the real society. Plans to avoid contagion need to deal with the society that we have, not the one we want.