Re:Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
by neolog on Thursday August 20, 2020 @12:05AM
(#24219763)
> But what if the die was already rolled for some individuals?
Why does the timing of the roll matter?
Re:Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
by jameshart on Thursday August 20, 2020 @12:31AM
(#24219909)
Well precisely, it doesn’t actually matter. I’ll let you into a secret: there isn’t even really a dice.
The point is more to get people to think about the difference between aggregate average mortality, vs the individual prognosis of one unlucky COVID patient.
This winds up being a trolley-problem kind of reframing of a moral argument. Philosophically, should you change your behavior between the following two scenarios:
- a group of 100 people all have a 1 in 100 chance of dying of a disease
- a group of 100 people contain one person who will definitely die if they get the disease
?
Does your answer change if you are the one person?
One problem with age-based stats like this is that it gives the impression that the way to think about risk is along the lines of russian roulette: when someone gets infected, the great actuary in the sky rolls a D100, consults the tables, and if their roll is good, they don't die.
But what if the die was already rolled for some individuals? What if, say, one in 100 people carry a genetic risk factor that means that if they get COVID, they have a much higher risk of dying - regardless of their age? That hypothesis is also compatible with the statistical data we are looking at.
You could also consider, what if some people have particular predisposition to become a superspreader and infect many more people?
If the population contains individuals for whom their individual outcome risk, or their potential impact on other people, is significantly above the average, then by reducing the spread of the disease we reduce the number of such people who ever get infected. You can prevent the D100 having to be rolled for as many people, including people who need to roll much higher to survive.