Re:Why I believe the US has herd immunity in some states
by rallison on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @10:43PM
(#24219349)
The fundamental issue I see in the piece is a conflation of what herd immunity means. Normally, it's used in the context of normal activity levels - as in, if everyone went back to normal pre-pandemic routines, would we see cases go up or down? But, you're using it in the context of current activity levels, which are still significantly different than pre-pandemic activity levels.
All you are effectively saying is that, given the current mitigation measures and given the current level of population immunity, R is less than 1 in these places. But, that's not really a revelation.
What one would expect is likely to be the case is that some areas have had enough exposure that it has a non-zero impact on their current R, as in NY and NJ. This means there may be more buffer to relax mitigation measures without seeing R rise above 1, but it doesn't necessarily mean they are at herd immunity.
All you are effectively saying is that, given the current mitigation measures and given the current level of population immunity, R is less than 1 in these places. But, that's not really a revelation.
What one would expect is likely to be the case is that some areas have had enough exposure that it has a non-zero impact on their current R, as in NY and NJ. This means there may be more buffer to relax mitigation measures without seeing R rise above 1, but it doesn't necessarily mean they are at herd immunity.