Re:Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial
by scarmig on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @06:28PM
(#24217525)
I agree that having realistic tax rates in addition to a cash grant in the experiment is key to determining people's actual behavior.
What'd be ideal is if you could randomly select a group of people and force them into the system, like it or not. Then observe their behavioral changes. This is likely of dubious legality.
A second option would be to offer people upfront an amount of money equal to the extra taxes you expect them to have to pay. E.g., if someone pays $50k/year in taxes now and would pay $100k/year in taxes under a UBI, you offer them $150k in tax-exempt income immediately to join a three year program, and afterwards they can do anything they like, including changing labor choices such that they pay less than $100k/year in taxes. This would get the microeconomic incentives fairly similar to those under a real UBI.
What'd be ideal is if you could randomly select a group of people and force them into the system, like it or not. Then observe their behavioral changes. This is likely of dubious legality.
A second option would be to offer people upfront an amount of money equal to the extra taxes you expect them to have to pay. E.g., if someone pays $50k/year in taxes now and would pay $100k/year in taxes under a UBI, you offer them $150k in tax-exempt income immediately to join a three year program, and afterwards they can do anything they like, including changing labor choices such that they pay less than $100k/year in taxes. This would get the microeconomic incentives fairly similar to those under a real UBI.