Canada has both Federal, and Provincial FPTP parliaments. On the Provincial level, new parties appear, and are elected , minority or majority, all the time. Constantly.
On the Federal level, things move more slowly. Yet new parties are appear, grow in popularity, and replace older parties.
Canada is not only a place of multiple parties, it is a place of constant party renewal.
And as a Canuck, I am all too familiar with vote splitting. We have party mergers. Parties that split and form new parties.
We know all about strategic voting, but because we have the concept of minority governments, and because we don't vote for who our Prime Minister is, the dynamic changes a bit.
FPTP isn't what causes two parties only, it is certain methods of government that do, mayhap combined with FPTP.
That is incorrect. In your scenario, you would be figuratively throwing your vote away.
For example, if you want them to do something about climate change you might vote for the Green party instead of Democrat. They won't win but your "stolen" vote might cause the Democrat party to lose. They don't want to lose so they might adopt policies from the Green party to attract you and all Green voters. That would be as good an outcome as multiple parties.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tWHJfhiyo&list=PLNCHVwtpeB...
Canada uses FPTP, and yet there are five parties represented in the house of commons [0].
While it's true that two parties have the lion's share of seats (155 for the liberals, 121 for the conservatives), as there are 338 seats, the liberals can't just steamroll legislation unopposed; they have to get at least some approval from other parties.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_Canada
But yes, Canada has soldiered on remarkably well in spite of it. USA used to be multi-party as well, the transition to 2-party takes time and there's nothing that truly guarantees it, just innately encourages. There are ways to slow it down / isolate sections... but the dominant parties can also whittle away at those over time.
For example, the Conservative Party of Canada:
- formed from a merger between Progressive Conservative Party - and the Canadian Alliance
Of which, the "Canadian Alliance" appeared entirely from grass roots.
It started with the Reform Party, where the PC party lost all but two seats, but the new "Reform" party obtained significant seats:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Canadian_federal_election
Which then morphed into the Alliance Party:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Canadian_federal_election
Which then, after the merger, with what was left of the PCs, formed the minority:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election
And then formed the government:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Canadian_federal_election
It should be noted that the merger between the older PC party, and the reform/alliance party was with the Alliance party at massive strength, in the House of Commons with a respectable number of seats, and 100% in charge of the future of the merged party.
My point here is ; the willingness for people to embrace new parties, new ideas, and vote for people .. not parties, helps with real political renewal in Canada.
Further, while some provinces aren't, most are MORE dynamic than the federal level at party change. Take Quebec, which has had new parties appear and then even form governments, in a period of two election cycles.
FPTP does NOT mean 2 parties. At all.
The main reason FPTP ensures at most 2 parties is that, say you have parties 1, A, and B, where A and B are relatively similar to each other. And say A and B are together more populous than 1, like a 40/30/30 split.
By splitting those 60% mostly-similar votes between A and B, both lose to the less-popular 1. It becomes in A and B's best interest to not cannibalize each other's votes, i.e. merge and dominate (or at least compete). The less fragmented ideology wins, not the most desired.
It's even more compelling during the formation of new parties when there are only 2: by not voting for one of the two dominant ones, you are literally throwing your vote away because it has no chance, and it's worse for your ideology than if you had chosen the most-similar of the dominant party.