Re:Lost Advanced Civilizations
by koheripbal on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @07:19AM
(#24209213)
It sort of depends on what you mean by "advanced". A civilization that simply had pottery 50K years ago, would be considered "advanced" and a major major breakthrough.
If it did only happen on an island which is today submerged, then probably we will never discover it without major investments to look (which are poor investments since the probability is low).
...and hence, the author's main insight is that low-probability discoveries should be incentivized by prediction markets such that those who believe in the status quo can safely buy their positions - and that anyone who can upend the status quo is richly rewarded.
I think that, conceptually, has merit.
One of his arguments is that continents and sea levels changed and you don't need to go back incredibly far to see this. Maybe the mines are all under the sea. How much of the sea bed have we explored?
If this planet ever had an industrial civilization, every once in a while we'd find something made of gold or stainless steel or ceramic. Not happening.