Re:Lost Advanced Civilizations
by notahacker on Tuesday August 18, 2020 @07:08PM
(#24205411)
This. (and you could probably reply to 90% of Hanson's 'you can solve problem X with a prediction market' posts with essentially the same argument)
It's not like people with understanding of archaeology aren't already highly incentivised - financially and otherwise - to discover evidence of ancient civilizations if it's actually there. Archaeological frauds exist even now, and even where there is no fraud there are enough disputes in dating and what actually constitutes advanced civilization to guarantee a prediction market in archaeological discovery is going to have a massive oracle problem...
It's not like people with understanding of archaeology aren't already highly incentivised - financially and otherwise - to discover evidence of ancient civilizations if it's actually there. Archaeological frauds exist even now, and even where there is no fraud there are enough disputes in dating and what actually constitutes advanced civilization to guarantee a prediction market in archaeological discovery is going to have a massive oracle problem...