Re:Parents are 5X as Worried about Infection and School than...
by renewiltord on Thursday August 13, 2020 @05:34PM
(#24149632)
I agree with these (hopefully not incorrectly) restated things I think you believe:
* It is more likely that MMR has few significant long-term health effects than if COVID-19 does
* COVID-19 effects are unlikely to be binary outcome
* Effects need not be universal for them to affect parental behaviour
However, none of that agreement is important to the discussion I was hoping to have. My comment was solely on the epistemology. I suspect you also use the same methods I was talking about in my previous comment.
If that is the case, then perhaps some other day we can argue about what the priors are. If we're good about it, we'll end up with the Aumann Agreement Theorem (+ corollaries) result, and rapidly agree (through likely both of us shifting our priors as we exchange information).
I think we have no disagreement and am happy to conclude this here.
* It is more likely that MMR has few significant long-term health effects than if COVID-19 does
* COVID-19 effects are unlikely to be binary outcome
* Effects need not be universal for them to affect parental behaviour
However, none of that agreement is important to the discussion I was hoping to have. My comment was solely on the epistemology. I suspect you also use the same methods I was talking about in my previous comment.
If that is the case, then perhaps some other day we can argue about what the priors are. If we're good about it, we'll end up with the Aumann Agreement Theorem (+ corollaries) result, and rapidly agree (through likely both of us shifting our priors as we exchange information).
I think we have no disagreement and am happy to conclude this here.