The year of Linux on the Desktop probably would have actually happened.
But that's really not the right comparison. It would be more like back in the pre-clone era IBM taking a cut of everything that ran on a PC. They might have even gotten away with it had the courts gone the other way on the BIOS copyright lawsuit. Probably would have set personal computing back for years.
“You can write apps for our hardware but all your purchases we take 30%...” imagine Microsoft trying this tactic in the 1990s.