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Re:Predictions as a Substitute for Reviews by jrib on Wednesday August 12, 2020 @08:46AM (#24131480)
> It's also something I've read about recently, that we frequently make decisions implicitly based on probabilities and expected values, only we very rarely make these numbers explicit. If we did, we might act more rationally.

Do you recall where? I'd be interested in reading it

Re:Predictions as a Substitute for Reviews by kqr on Wednesday August 12, 2020 @11:29AM (#24133034)
Most recently in The Undercover Economist by Tim Harford.

I can't give a full recommendation because it's recent enough that I'm still only about halfway through it, but overall it has been worth a read so far. (I found some chapters dull -- in particular the bits about the 2008 financial crisis have just not interested me -- but I have high hopes it will regain my interest again in the rest of the chapters.)