I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing (2008) [pdf]

Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by dhosek on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @12:49PM (#24122455)

I'm afraid we're looking at a great filter event very soon. We're doing nothing about global warming, we've demonstrated that the United States has a significant fraction of its population which values short-term pleasure over the most basic work to prevent the spread of a pandemic (and we're likely to see these sorts of things happen more, not less frequently as we continue to encroach on wildlife habitat). I'm increasingly skeptical of the ability for civilization to make it into the 21st century.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by jeffreyrogers on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @12:55PM (#24122545)

I really doubt global warming will lead to human extinction. Life might get harder in lots of ways, but it seems extremely unlikely to be an existential problem.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by Emma_Goldman on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @01:01PM (#24122637)

Sure, but there's a small chance that it will bring about the end of modern civilization. In that sense it will be civilization-ending. An interesting question is whether humans would be able to rebuild civilization after events like this.

I think the main extinction risk is the secular trend for technology to become both more destructive and more decentralised. If that continues, it might only be a matter of time before independent actors will be able to extinguish the human race. And given the distribution of human motivations, if individuals can do it, someone will sooner or later.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by jeffreyrogers on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @01:08PM (#24122731)

I can see the civilization ending argument, although it seems like something resembling modern civilization could be rebuilt, maybe with less access to energy, but with less people you also need less energy, so I'm not sure how big of a problem that will be. Maybe without global industries there won't be the materials science necessary for space exploration.

I have a harder time believing independent actors can extinguish the human race. Biowarfare/terrorism is unlikely to do so for a variety of reasons, and nuclear warfare only has the potential to do in superpower level conflict, and even then I don't think it's certain.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by acqq on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @01:33PM (#24123078)

> human race

Being satisfied that some "naked apes" still living could mean a survival, as a biological species, of the probable destruction of current civilization is setting the bar really low.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by jeffreyrogers on Wednesday August 12, 2020 @02:14PM (#24134999)

Okay, but do you really think civilization is going to collapse entirely? I don't. Even if half of humanity died you would still have civilization of some sort.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by codezero on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @01:03PM (#24122662)

I think with a bunch of nations wielding nuclear power, the threat of a global collapse absolutely becomes an existential problem, regardless of the source of that collapse.

I don't think it's likely, but I also don't think it's something one can dismiss easily.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by jeffreyrogers on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @01:10PM (#24122765)

I don't understand the motivations for using nuclear weapons in that scenario. And you would need a massive nuclear exchange to cause human extinction.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by codezero on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @01:16PM (#24122846)

I agree, and I'm not sure I can think of the motivations either except that extreme strain causes people to do stupid things, it could even just be an accident.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by MichaelApproved on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @01:18PM (#24122869)

I think OP was listing ways that humans are acting negligent which shows that we are susceptible to a filter.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday August 12, 2020 @04:33AM (#24129770)

Even if we'll "just" regress back to pre-industrial age instead, it's almost the same as extinction, because humanity will become boring. It'll have a ceiling on its potential for thousands of years, or more.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by jeffreyrogers on Wednesday August 12, 2020 @02:13PM (#24134980)

Maybe in terms of human accomplishment it would be more boring, but probably less boring for individuals.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday August 12, 2020 @04:55PM (#24136863)

I meant that in the former, but even in terms of the latter, I personally feel that humanity's progress also made life less boring for individuals than it was before. But I may be biased by how much I enjoy exploring all kinds of complexity and artificial systems.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by trenchgun on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @12:58PM (#24122587)

Existential problem by itself? No.

Existential threat multiplier? Probably yes.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by jeffreyrogers on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @01:02PM (#24122656)

I don't see any clear way in which it is an existential threat multiplier.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by defterGoose on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @01:15PM (#24122826)

> I'm increasingly skeptical of the ability for civilization to make it into the 21st century.

Because of.....Y2K?

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by dhosek on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @02:19PM (#24123758)

D'oh! 22nd century.

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by fmakunbound on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @01:20PM (#24122888)

CO2?

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Re:I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing... by crawlcrawler on Tuesday August 11, 2020 @01:35PM (#24123105)

Sars-COV-2?

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