News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:5G Just Got Weird by FeepingCreature on Sunday August 09, 2020 @03:00PM (#24101933)
Google says there's two million satellite internet users. At $50/mo, if SpaceX can grab all of them, which seems well possible, that's 1.2 billion income a year, even assuming that the improved service doesn't result in anybody else switching from bad rural internet to Starlink.

A fifth of the US population lives outside of big cities. That's not a big fraction, but it's a small fraction of a very big number. Being able to capture that market even for a decade would basically bankroll SpaceX's Mars goal by itself. And that's not even looking at other countries.

Re:5G Just Got Weird by dragonwriter on Sunday August 09, 2020 @03:10PM (#24102018)
> A fifth of the US population lives outside of big cities. That's not a big fraction, but it's a small fraction of a very big number. Being able to capture that market even for a decade would basically bankroll SpaceX's Mars goal by itself.

That's about 25 million households, or about $150 billion gross revenue (not profit) over a decade at the price assumptions you give.

If SpaceX’s public estimate of total Mars program cost of $10 billion was reasonable, that might plausibly fund the program. But it's highly dubious that that is even on the right order of magnitude.

Re:5G Just Got Weird by FeepingCreature on Sunday August 09, 2020 @03:26PM (#24102151)
Eh, don't underestimate the savings from reuse that's actually practical and not cost-plus. I think SpaceX have demonstrated the economic case for their approach with the F9. And once SpaceX demonstrate they can put cargo on Mars, NASA'll have to get in. Plus people may actually pay to migrate. If you think those numbers are unrealistic, look at SpaceX's posted total costs for their rocket development programs. I think the message is more "every space agency has ridiculously overpaid for decades."
Re:5G Just Got Weird by dragonwriter on Sunday August 09, 2020 @03:42PM (#24102275)
> Plus people may actually pay to migrate.

Sure, but “rich people's vanity may help finance the program” (and NASA will help finance the program, etc.) doesn’t anything to support “satellite internet will finance the program by itself”.

Re:5G Just Got Weird by FeepingCreature on Sunday August 09, 2020 @04:52PM (#24102809)
No, I mean if cost is as stated. I'm saying cost as stated is plausible if you account that flights may be sold.
Re:5G Just Got Weird by duskwuff on Monday August 10, 2020 @01:12AM (#24105774)
> Google says there's two million satellite internet users. At $50/mo, if SpaceX can grab all of them, which seems well possible

I doubt it. There are a surprising number of satellite internet customers in completely illogical places, like in the middle of major US cities. A lot of this probably has to do with the abysmal state of broadband options in the US -- many customers are served by a single wired broadband provider; when they lose faith in that provider (or are denied service), satellite may be their next best option.

Re:5G Just Got Weird by tuatoru on Sunday August 09, 2020 @06:14PM (#24103409)
> A fifth of the US population lives outside of big cities

And there are people living rurally outside of the USA, too.

Starlink could bring rural Asia and Africa into the 21st century with one terminal per village.