Re:Philosophers on GPT-3
by ben_w on Wednesday August 05, 2020 @11:40AM
(#24062028)
I disagree: Nobody really knows how close or far AGI is, because we don’t know enough about our own minds to tell how close we are to reproducing them.
Step 4 has happened many times in this history of AI, but how many more are there between what we have and what we want? We’ll find out by trying. Might be GPT-4, might be 2032 (my personal guesstimate), might be 2100.
If this was always as simple as throwing more compute and more data at it… then my optimistic forecast in 2009 would’ve been right and companies like Google and Tesla would have stopped shipping their cars with steering wheels in 2020 year, after about two years of their AI being demonstrably superhuman.
Step 4 has happened many times in this history of AI, but how many more are there between what we have and what we want? We’ll find out by trying. Might be GPT-4, might be 2032 (my personal guesstimate), might be 2100.
If this was always as simple as throwing more compute and more data at it… then my optimistic forecast in 2009 would’ve been right and companies like Google and Tesla would have stopped shipping their cars with steering wheels in 2020 year, after about two years of their AI being demonstrably superhuman.