An effective PhD advisor/thesis isn't wandering the woods to find something. It's a guided coaching exercise, with an outcome in mind. If your advisor doesn't know this, maybe time to find a new advisor...
You don't know me, but I really needed to hear this. I left grad school essentially because of a dearth of coaching. Thank you for framing this so succinctly.
There are multiple slightly different versions of the seminar (another is linked below that one), but unfortunately they all came out after I'd finished my PhD, and I didn't hear that advice from anyone else.
The process I arrived at after losing time on failed projects was basically "fail fast": find the simplest quickest way to demonstrate that your idea won't work, and do that. Then find the next simplest, and so on, until either it works or you've proven it doesn't and moved on.
Really annoys me when the word fraud is thrown around so freely, so I'd appreciate it if you don't.
> Obviously you rewrite the whole paper
It is not mentioned and was not obvious to me. Still, I'd postpone writing the conclusion to after you actually have the data. To do otherwise would be steering the experiments to get the expected results. I also reckon this depends on your field, how long the experiments take and your confidence in the results.
> Really annoys me when the word fraud is thrown around so freely, so I'd appreciate it if you don't.
I agree, 'academic dishonesty' is a more appropriate term here.
I remember after my first paper was finished and submitted, and wow, it seemed easy to bang out papers after that, all you needed was four to five figures :)