2. Even if you ask an engineer what his or her dream product is, it's often something like "(existing thing) done right".
3. How do you know that your other examples won't turn out to be as innovative? It took Google years to figure out search advertising. You just think that Google miraculously produced perfect software the first time around, because you weren't paying as much attention before.
But I will grant you one point. The old Google had a rule that they wouldn't get into a market unless they thought they had a chance of being 10x better than anyone else. It's hard to believe that Lively is going to be 10x better than the other social MMOs.
Are there any products they've made that are really new, versus done better? I can't think of any, though I'm sure there must be a few.
A few years ago Google was doing awesome new cool stuff... significantly better search, advertising products, cutting edge JavaScript stuff like Google Maps and Gmail, etc.
Now they just seem to be copying things others have done first, like Open Social, Android, App Engine, and now Lively.