Possibly tangential, so apologies for that, but I am reminded of the "Linda problem"[1], as posed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.

Michael Lewis's book The Undoing Project[2], which in my opinion provides an accessible and informative look into the work of Tversky and Kahneman, is worth a read.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy

[2} https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Undoing_Project