In San Francisco the guidance has been “you idiots keep having social gatherings, this is why we can’t let you go shopping.” But to me it seems absolutely insane to spend our “exposure budget” on shopping, or on a return to the office. There are perfectly good substitutes for these things. Not so for friends.

I like the phrase "exposure budget", I hope you don't mind if I steal it. I've been thinking of things the same way, though my #1 "budgetary priority" right now is probably "open schools" over everything else, including seeing friends—and I say that as someone with zero children.

Even child psychologists have reversed their stance on returning to school. They've realized that the trauma of having a teacher die is worse than not socializing for a few more months.

At the current virus levels, it is expected that at least two teachers and 60 students will die every day in the USA if we reopen schools.

That is of course out of hundreds of thousands of teachers and millions of students, but if it's your teacher or your friend, it doesn't really matter how many millions didn't die that day, does it?

Picking out that you said "current virus levels" I completely agree.

There is no timeframe for getting the virus levels under wraps. It's a matter of determining what the risk is.

I'd put it like this for myself, if the risk to the students and teachers is MORE than some already known risk factors we have out there (driving) then let's not do it.

If the risk to students and teachers is similar or less than some already known risk factors then we can consider opening.

I'd also like to see a plan of something like (not exactly this I'm no expert).

If someone from a class is confirmed with COVIDthe whole class closes for 2 weeks (goes remote). If there are 3 cases at the school they close for 2 weeks. If there are 3 schools in the district and there's less than XYZ miles then the district closes for 2 weeks.

This is a rough idea but we can easily handle 2-4 weeks off at a time given a case of COVID. So if we're opening lets be cautious and imitate other countries who have done well.

What you describe is very similar to the new rules in California. When the county gets to a certain level of containment, schools will open, and otherwise will basically follow the plan you just described, with closures based on cases within the school and/or district.

>a few more months

People keep saying "a few more months." What is the evidence for this? We are not going to have a vaccine developed, tested, and deployed to 300 million people in a few months. Nor are we going to grow Asia-level mask compliance, quarantine enforcement, and contact tracing within the Trump presidency. Now that it's a tribal issue, it probably can't be done at all.

It really seems like we're in this for a few years.

I was being optimistic. Although during the 1918 pandemic, after the third wave, mask compliance went way up as people finally realized the thing was real and was deadly. So maybe it'll get better.

Also, at least right where I live in Santa Clara county, we're almost at the point of reopening again. I see 99.9%+ mask compliance here, and the numbers are trending down (albeit slowly).

I suspect based on the Governor's new policies that my kids will be back in school before Thanksgiving, until things get bad again and the have to leave again.

If we reopen schools, how many teachers and students will die in traffic accidents that could have been avoided by WFH? Should we WFH forever and wrap the kids in bubble wrap to avoid that trauma too?

Also, where did you get those numbers from? I would have expected teachers to be at far higher risk of death than students.

> If we reopen schools, how many teachers and students will die in traffic accidents that could have been avoided by WFH?

Many fewer, especially given that for students it usually involves walking or short drives through residential neighborhoods.

> Should we WFH forever and wrap the kids in bubble wrap to avoid that trauma too?

Obviously not. There is clearly a point where it makes sense to go back. But now isn't that time.

> Also, where did you get those numbers from? I would have expected teachers to be at far higher risk of death than students.

It's based on the CDC mortality data combined with the number of school kids.

The teacher estimate is harder because we don't know exactly the age breakdown of the teachers, but it's based on the assumption that 30% of teachers are over 50 and putting the rest in the 20-30 risk group, which is probably too low.

The actual number of teachers is lower just because there are only about 1 teacher per 30 students.

Which is why your numbers look wrong, because if there's 1 teacher for every 30 students and also 1 teacher dying for every 30 student deaths, that implies the risk of death for the two groups is equivalent.

My broader point, though, is that life requires calculated risk and tradeoffs. If the standard is "no child should ever experience a teacher dying from corona", and we WFH until that risk becomes <1/adult/year, then we're disregarding things like kids committing suicide due to isolation, health issues left untreated due to the pandemic, domestic violence etc. School is a literal lifeline for many children, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds.

Same I haven't seen that before and I hope the op is stealing this. I'd like to see more people thinking in this way.

Thanks! I suspect that public health authorities wouldn't like this, as they do not want people to feel that they can "spend" at all unless it's essential. But that doesn't seem like something we can actually sustain until the vaccine, so I have found the concept helpful.

A friends company is planning on bringing 50% back to the office in October.

Which effectively means instead of 4-8 hours of Zoom meetings at his house, he can take them sitting at his desk in the building, while the other 50% sit at home.

Not sure how well that is going to work out. This is an old school Financial company though, so it's not overly surprising.

At the beginning of July the company I work for divided the employees into two groups and have each group come in 2 weeks at a time. I thought this was silly until I heard my friend also has a 50/50 split but it was every other day. We both work in tech and can do our jobs very well remotely.

My (higher education) institution had a really nice gradual phase in plan. Small shifts of workers for a few months when the state opened back up, with more people coming in as we approached semester. An emphasis on in-person classes, but with options for folks who were uncomfortable with crowds.

Then administration caught wind we were 14% off on students.

Two days later - mandatory, everyone back in the office, no remote work to be allowed, for any reason.

It's depressing, and I have no other reason to type this out, other than to complain, I guess. 99% of my, and the folks in my office's jobs can be done, effectively, remotely. But that's not an option. Just ridiculous.

Given that, you school must be pushing hard to have regular school in the fall with student's at the school in classroom seats and in dorms. What will happen when the extremely likey covid19 spread leads to a sudden closing of your in-person schooling?

>What will happen when the extremely likely covid19 spread leads to a sudden closing of your in-person schooling?

Faculty are given the choice on whether to teach in-person, remote, or a hybrid.

It's the staff that aren't given a choice, and also aren't given an avenue to deal with concerns or questions.

So, the answer is, if there is spread on campus, the faculty will be told to go online, and staff will be told "you're safe, because there are no students now", much as we are being told today, in the current summer semester.

To quote the President from his most recent update for staff about enrollment, "Please join me in being part of the solutions to the many challenges we face now and in the very near future and refrain from the negativity and participation of those wanting to be part of the problem. That individual choice is yours. Please make it wisely."

> Then administration caught wind we were 14% off on students.

What does 14% off on students mean? 14% fewer students registering for classes?

14% revenue drop too. I think a lot of colleges would be happy with only a 14% revenue drop! They must have thought not having in-person classes certain was reducing student signups.

14% fewer students this year compared to the same day last year.

What's the reasoning? Why is being off 14% of students a reason to bring everyone back? To show that things are "normal" to encourage people to come back?

Name and shame I say

Sitting in an office besides someone having a Zoom meeting sounds is my personal version of hell.

I probably wouldn't make it as a telemarketer.

Non-US, non-Google regular enterprise IT here. There is absolutely zero reason my team needs to be in office. Management has stated multiple time that our productivity has increased. And yet, our official WFH policy keeps getting extended on the last day the government regulates an extension.

Overall it has left a very sour taste in my mouth, it almost feels as if we will be called in office the moment gov removes restrictions. It also tells me my company doesn't want us making any medium term plans. In another words, we are expendable.

I agree. It seems to me that the best course of action at this point is to continue aggressive safety measures. I'm not a virology expert by any means, but it kinda makes intuitive sense that natural herd immunity will build over time. I mean I've been being as careful as I reasonably can, but it's doubtful at this point that I haven't been exposed to the virus many times by now, at least in some capacity. I think some people underestimate the multifaceted nature of your odds of survival if you catch this thing. It's not just a roll of the dice; things like your viral load and your overall health matter immensely. So doing our best to make sure people aren't doing things like spending long periods of time in close proximity to one another with recycled air flow seems like what we should continue doing.