I'm not saying that it is impossible for the US to experience a food shortage or even that smart people in and out of government shouldn't worry about that eventuality. I am saying that current and past US programs to subsidize farmers probably do not do / have not done much to reduce that risk and that most of the group collectively deciding to continue the subsidies probably know or strongly suspect that.
In my experience, the elected representatives and other influencers arguing for the subsidies don't even use food security as an argument. (Again, like others in the thread, I am restricting myself to US food policy.) Instead, they argue that the family farm is a producer of particularly virtuous individuals, and it would be a shame if all the family farms were to be driven out of business by large corporations.
The US Midwest has the largest tract of arable land in the world and twice as large as the second largest. If the people of the world were redistributed among the countries so as to equalize the probability of famine among the countries, the US would probably end up with a population over a billion.