As an individual your chances are no doubt increased. But at a 65,000 + 20,000 H1B quota that is oversubscribed about 1 to 3 it's hard to imagine a situation where it somehow doesn't get exhausted.

Over 2/3 of H1B applicants would have to be OPT extension recipients AND you'd have to assume there is no hidden demand that would resurface given a drop in applicants.

Okay, given that the original comment that prompted this thread was:

“ The WH is finally getting to its main goal, reducing immigration overall.”

Do you agree or disagree that discouraging foreign students will have an impact (even a small one) on immigration? It seems like it will.

Well via different categories by happenstance perhaps, which is why I mentioned marriage. But then again people on tourist visas do that too, probably in bigger numbers. And tourists from most places can't visit right now either.

Most pathways to immigrate to America are either capped, backlogged or hard enough that there isn't a ton of people using them.

If this was a strategic move by the WH rather than just ICE interpreting rules, I'd be much more willing to believe this is an action targeted at China given how many foreign students are Chinese. Or as someone else noted, a way to pressure schools to open up.