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A comment on The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]. Parent comment

Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by refurb on Saturday July 18, 2020 @01:11AM (#23879141)
That's an interesting argument. I guess one critical piece of data would be - is the probability of Covid-19 originating from wet markets the same across all of China?

If every wet market had the same probability, then yeah, it's odd that the alleged wet market is one of thousands, but just happened to be next to the bio lab in Wuhan.

But if the probability was unevenly distributed and such a virus originating was highly likely in only a few dozen wet markets, Wuhan included, then the probability of it being a coincidence is much higher.

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by pldr2244 on Saturday July 18, 2020 @03:15AM (#23879668)
Interesting. But also to GP’s point, I never thought of that perspective.

It is quite unsettling to realise the strangeness of odds that it occurred right next to the Wuhan lab...

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by DiogenesKynikos on Saturday July 18, 2020 @09:46AM (#23881355)
"Right next to" being 14 km away, on the other side of a major metropolis.

Nobody knows where the outbreak actually began, though. Wuhan was just the first place it was detected. It could easily have begun somewhere in the countryside, only taking off when an infected person went to a major city. Just look how long it circulated undetected in the US - for more than a month - before anyone noticed.

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