It's a combination of #2 and #3. The Trump administration has a strategy that should be very clear by now: implement or propose outlandish policy, then use it as leverage for gains in some orthogonal area while walking it back. This is deal-making 101, Trump (or his ghost-writer) writes about it in all his books, and it's an obvious trend. He uses this tact in domestic policy and trade deals, and tbh it's pretty effective.