China will certainly stop burning coal when the economics of doing so makes sense to China. How long will that take? I suspect sooner than you might imagine.

Coal is already uneconomic against renewable energy in many scenarios and this trend continues inexorably.

Coal is not only our worst large-scale energy resource in terms of global warming. It also produces local pollution, which disproportionately impacts air quality in Beijing.

The rate of change in China is fast. Following behind other countries, they aim to become the global technology leader.

China has already demonstrated intent and ability to economically dominate high volume technology industries in pursuit of its own interest: LCD panel, solar panel etc. Next comes battery. Currently the most significant constraint on renewable energy deployment.

If things pan out the way I hope, then good for China. And good for the rest of us too.