Re:In the future, lab mice will live in computer chips, not ...
by chrisco255 on Friday July 03, 2020 @02:31AM
(#23721563)
I would argue we can't even model those things. Non-linear, dynamic systems are not predictable beyond a certain point even if you have a perfect model. Uncertainty with models of dynamic systems like biological ones, increases exponentially as a function of time. And they are highly sensitive to initial conditions, so if your input is off from reality by even the tiniest amount, reality will veer off dramatically from your expected results, even if you have the perfect model. Chaos theory is a thing. We can use models to learn about systems and how they might work, or how we might think they work, but we can't use them to model reality effectively enough to determine treatments.
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Re:In the future, lab mice will live in computer chips, not ...
by chr1 on Friday July 03, 2020 @08:36AM
(#23723431)
While individual trajectories of non-linear systems are not predictable, they all end up on an attractor and usually all we are interested in, is the attractor.
That is when performing a test on a mouse we are not measuring what a particular mouse would do, but what the mice do on average. So as long as model behaves like a mouse it can be useful, even though it would not behave like any particular mouse.
Also it's important to remember that the question is not about all or nothing, when we get a model most likely instead of 100 experiments on real mice we will be doing millions on virtual mice, and then 10 on real mice to verify the results.