> Now smart scientists, if they want to work in person with the widest supply of good colleagues, will go to other wealthy countries.
Right. I would say they will go to the countries where other smart people are, which turn out to be wealthy countries.
Yes, I elides that step. (not in order): Canada, UK, France, Germany, Singapore, possibly Australia. Not a huge change, except improvement in quality of life.
My guess for the big beneficiaries are Canada (right next to the US, with both Vancouver and Toronto benefiting) and Germany, despite the lack of English.
Brain drain always happens from poor to rich countries. Those able to move to greener pastures will, I don't blame them. This is even happening within the US in Illinois. High taxes and precarious government have led to massive migration away from the state. Highest percent of college students going out of state, and average person moving to Illinois makes nearly $25,000 less than average person leaving.
You can't blame people from wanting a better life for their family. In the end it does concentrate wealth, but maybe it will eventually just concentrate the population? This seems to be happening in China, with massive migration to megacities. Rich or poor, the countryside is being abandoned, so there's not many being hurt by the migration, just empty buildings
Except there are no such places for the most part.
Europe's economy is stagnant and they are not paying competitively.
China's wages don't remotely compare, it only makes sense in the context of a National who might value their lives their due to family, history, nationality etc. etc..
Germany was rubble in 1945.
America still leads most industries.
There is an easier, less theoretical issue here, and that is the H1B program was a hustle. Infosys and a few others use it to 'inshore' IT talent and that's it. Not R&D by the way.
"It’s hard to see this as anything good for the world."
Actually it's crystal clear: those jobs stay in India where they pay local taxes where they are desperately needed and many more boats are lifted.
That's a pretty amazing claim to make. The United States is not the only wealthy country in the world, and does not have the highest standard of living in the world. Western Europe is comparable. I would argue - for many reasons having to do with social solidarity and public goods - that it generally has a higher standard of living than the US. There are lots of other places scattered around the world, like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and don't forget Canada.
> China's wages don't remotely compare
Neither do prices in China. Moreover, as the difference between the US and China narrows, the attractiveness of the US over China as a place to live decreases, and the US will benefit less and less from brain drain out of China. Places like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen already have a GDP/capita of around $25k, and actually feel much more modern than American cities in many ways. I'm sure this dynamic is not unique to China.
The US had an incredibly good thing going for it - the ability to attract the best students and workers from around the world. People just take it for granted that the global tech industry is concentrated in Silicon Valley. Many people believe that if the US restricts immigration, all those tech jobs will remain in Silicon Valley and be redistributed among Americans. That might be the case for a short time, until companies adjust and move operations abroad, to where the labor force is.
GW Bush returned the favor by sending stem cell work to China and Singapore (and to a lesser extent, Europe). Now smart scientists, if they want to work in person with the widest supply of good colleagues, will go to other wealthy countries.
It’s hard to see this as anything good for the world.