I think the reverse. The globe is relatively stable, and there are pockets of instability, some of which are the fault of the US.

Of course this is all a challenging exercise (which is my only real point) since we don’t have counterfactuals for any of these scenarios.

If we're making sweeping generalizations, then countries with stable benevolent governments who don't threaten their neighbors / the US and fund terrorism don't get invaded or occupied either. To be clear, I'm not saying every foreign policy action the US has undertaken in the last few decades has been superb.

If we're making sweeping generalizations, then countries that don't project military power to prop up dodgy regimes and enforce their currency on major commodities don't get targetted by terrorist action. To be clear, I'm not saying every action that resistance organisations and foreign governments have taken in the last few decades has been superb.

:) :)