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Re:Building AI Trading Systems by tcgv on Saturday June 27, 2020 @02:00AM (#23659825)
> since some kind of autoregressive time series forecasting system seems pretty unreliable.

A few months ago I tried to evaluate autoregressive behavior in stock returns. To my surprise it seemed strong on some periods, but then weak on others [1], and as you said not reliable enough to rely on.

My impression is that a lot more information aggregation and processing is required to obtain a sustainable edge worth tranding on than what a single developer can achieve in his/her spare time.

Top investment shops have dedicated teams of sw engineers just to deal with the infrastructure that support their data pipelines, financial model backtesting and deployment.

[1] https://thomasvilhena.com/2020/01/likelihood-of-autoregressi...

Re:Building AI Trading Systems by michaf on Saturday June 27, 2020 @01:31PM (#23663169)
There must be some information content left in stock price time series data, as evidenced e.g. by the price Momentum factor [1], which was been replicated in a number of studies (e.g. [2]), observable over the last couple of decades.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum_investing

[2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2961979

Re:Building AI Trading Systems by Galanwe on Saturday June 27, 2020 @04:12AM (#23660291)
You don't have to outperform to have a viable strategy. Harnessing small returns from multiple un correlated sources is a perfectly viable plan.