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Re:California sets Covid-19 daily record, Bay Area cumulativ... by 9nGQluzmnq3M on Tuesday June 23, 2020 @07:42PM (#23621900)
If you can persistently keep the rate < 1, you will by mathematical definition eradicate the disease. (0.99 * 0.99 * 0.99 ... eventually sums to zero.)

Keeping it under control but not eradicated means averaging exactly 1 over time, which seems like a much harder balancing act.

Re:California sets Covid-19 daily record, Bay Area cumulativ... by colechristensen on Tuesday June 23, 2020 @08:03PM (#23622095)
We're at 26k cases per day in the US, yes if you continue with r<1 for long enough you have few enough cases that you change strategy to eradication, but that isn't really important. Saying what your strategy is now doesn't mean you're bound to it for months or years, you have to shift based on reality, we're not just dealing with a mathematical model.

Focusing on the rate as the metric of attention seems very much like the right thing to be at the center of public policy.

Re:California sets Covid-19 daily record, Bay Area cumulativ... by richk449 on Tuesday June 23, 2020 @11:37PM (#23623758)
> Keeping it under control but not eradicated means averaging exactly 1 over time, which seems like a much harder balancing act.

Just put the control rods - I mean open restaurants - on a control loop driven by number of number of hospitalizations.

Helps if you have prompt and delayed transmission modes, so you can regulate at the slower speed.

Re:California sets Covid-19 daily record, Bay Area cumulativ... by soledades on Tuesday June 23, 2020 @09:37PM (#23622925)
Yeah but the r is by various proxies a function of the # of cases, so it is not so simple.