I think the people that get the jobs as tenure track assistant professor at good research universities can usually qualify. At least the young professors I knew didn't have any issues. Graduate students and post docs are usually already doing those types of services now also.

I’m good friends with an assistant professor at mit who ended up not going the O-1 route.

False. All you need is to prove your “exceptional qualifications” and that you would improve the country by working here. There are a number of ways to do that and conferences is just one possible way

I'm a hiring manager at a FAANG company and exclusively hire PhDs. The very first question that I try to answer when looking at a candidate who can't get OPT is "can this person feasible get an O-1". Then I bring a resume to the lawyers. I have a lot of experience evaluating whether somebody can feasibly get an O-1.

Just having a publication record is not enough. It needs to be a strong record and you need to have strong ties to the academic community through things like program committees. I've sadly had to turn down a lot of people who would easily improve the country by working here because their publication record isn't enough to get an O-1 visa.

I know faculty at MIT who aren't on O-1s.

It's not easy.

I know three people who got it and one of them I wrote reference for. If my recommendation (among other things ofc) is sufficient I assume it’s not impossible =) Also you need good lawyer as with many such things

It is certainly possible. The point is that it isn’t easy. “This person has published novel research in a top conference and has a PhD from an internationally recognized university” is not a guarantee.

Again neither had been accepted at top conferences. I think one had phd in unrelated field

"I know some cases that worked...so all must be easy"