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Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by Cyclone_ on Saturday June 20, 2020 @02:44PM (#23585821)
Seems kind of silly to say without evidence that it's just to feed the base when there's a valid reason as to why it's being done (to prioritize Americans out of work)
Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by Sam_Odio on Saturday June 20, 2020 @03:01PM (#23586015)
> there's a valid reason as to why it's being done (to prioritize Americans out of work)

The "Fixed pie fallacy" [1] is probably both one of the most important tenants of modern policy-making, yet it's rarely explicitly discussed or debated.

Cyclone_, your thinking relies on this fallacy, namely that if one person is working a job, that's one less job available. [2]

In reality, there is quite a bit of empirical research that indicates when people work (especially highly skilled jobs like in tech), it does not reduce (and may even increase) the jobs available to others [3].

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy 2. https://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/07/opinion/lumps-of-labor.ht... 3. https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/...

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by jjoonathan on Saturday June 20, 2020 @03:26PM (#23586327)
If globalization and automation are so good at job creation, why did the American manufacturing workforce collapse?

Economies are complex, counter-intuitive feedback machines, but the "supply and demand" model fits the last 40 years of data, while the "floats all boats" model really doesn't.

"Lump of labor is a fallacy, honest!" sure sounds like the kind of opinion I could get a good penny for if I were an enterprising economist, though.

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by kjksf on Saturday June 20, 2020 @04:03PM (#23586775)
He was talking about software jobs.

"More than half of the top American tech companies were founded by immigrants or the children of immigrants"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/30/us-tech-companies-founded-by...

Recent immigrants were responsible for creating tens of thousands of jobs, most of them for Americans.

Software isn't a zero-sum game even on a country level and certainly US benefits enormously because companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Netflix etc. are global giants but employ massive amounts of highly paid people in US.

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by jjoonathan on Saturday June 20, 2020 @09:04PM (#23588808)
CNBC sure had to stretch that definition pretty darn far to get to "more than half," didn't they.

In any case, immigration is the least upsetting globalization policy IMO: it is exactly what it says on the tin, almost everyone agrees that too little or too much is bad, and the amount can be tuned using quotas. H1B, however, is not that. It pretends to be about scarce skillsets (which enter this calculation one way) when it's actually usually about standard skillsets (which enter the calculation in another). Further, it suppresses the bargaining ability of the people subjected to it, depressing wages for both them those they compete with. Worse still is "regulatory arbitrage" where low tariffs encourage companies to bypass environmental, safety, and labor regulation by shipping manufacturing (or what have you) overseas. I prefer immigration to both H1Bs and regulatory arbitrage, and not by a small margin.

As a more general point, exponential growth is one helluva drug and truly does create a "floats all boats" environment, but different economics apply once an economic sector plateaus. Those economics look much closer to zero-sum. Zero-growth = zero-sum. Low growth is low sum. That's why what happened to American manufacturing over the last 20 years is a good model for what happens to American software over the next 20, if we aren't careful.

We've had it good in software, but we're no longer in the phase where we can pretend the sigmoid is a neverending exponential.

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by Anon1096 on Saturday June 20, 2020 @04:55PM (#23587227)
Immigrants starting businesses aren't doing it on H1-B visas. Those are only for employees of existing companies and don't upgrade to permanent citizenship.
Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by triceratops on Saturday June 20, 2020 @07:33PM (#23588353)
> Immigrants starting businesses aren't doing it on H1-B visas.

Because it's very difficult. Even then Zenefits' co-founder (Laks Srini) started on an H-1B.[1]

What's that saying? "Entrepreneurship uh...finds a way."

1. https://www.computerworld.com/article/2852250/silicon-valley...

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by shuckles on Saturday June 20, 2020 @04:19PM (#23586915)
If globalization and automation are so good at job creation, why did the American horse buggy workforce collapse?
Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by BolexNOLA on Saturday June 20, 2020 @11:57PM (#23589626)
Because it was outdated technology, that’s not even what you are talking about. You’re talking about a fundamental change in technology, not production methods (automation) or market/labor expansion (globalization). Frankly, I’m not sure what point you’re even trying to make.
Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by shuckles on Sunday June 21, 2020 @03:29PM (#23594656)
Fair enough, replace a disrupted technology with census tabulators who were automated. My point stands: you can't look at job losses in the affected industry to tell the whole story. You have to look at jobs in the economy at large. Automation leads to new demands elsewhere, and so does globalization.
Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by iamacyborg on Saturday June 20, 2020 @02:45PM (#23585826)
Ah yes, we can expect restaurant staff to soon be working tech jobs.
Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by WillPostForFood on Saturday June 20, 2020 @02:50PM (#23585874)
College graduate unemployment rate is over 8%, up from 2% a few months ago. There are a lot of skilled, educated, unemployed workers right now. I wouldn’t kick out H-1Bs, but no reason take in new ones right now.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CGRA2534

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by belltaco on Saturday June 20, 2020 @03:07PM (#23586083)
Unemployment in tech is down from Jan to May this year.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/06/11/unemp...

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by oneplane on Saturday June 20, 2020 @02:57PM (#23585962)
You do know that H-1B's are already only in because there was no American that could do it, right?

Plenty of education and skill in the USA that doesn't have a fitting job (right now) to put that to use.

Say there are 100000 MBA's but you need someone who knows how to run a kubernetes cluster with a custom syscall shim for a modified kernel and there is someone in Norway who knows how to do that. Even combining all those college graduates combined with all their business education wouldn't be useful for such a role, but that Norwegian person would be. But you still want to stop H-1B?

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by x0x0 on Saturday June 20, 2020 @03:01PM (#23586007)
The number of recent layoffs make it clear that there are plenty of people perfectly capable of performing even your pretend scenario. See eg http://layoffs.fyi/ and also eng layoffs at Uber, Samsara, etc.
Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by oneplane on Saturday June 20, 2020 @03:09PM (#23586105)
Well, then the government in the USA is wrong, because they wrote that the Immigration and Nationality Act, section 101(a)(15)(H) is for foreign workers in specialty occupations, especially due to the need of skills that are urgently needed by the country.

Also, those mass layoffs you reference are rather recent and doesn't seem to have anything to do with this specific visa system. At the same time, the pool of available people might suddenly exist now, and that means that a company that needs someone with those skills now has a native worker available instead of having to search for people elsewhere. H-1B workers that were laid off have to exit the USA so it's not like they will add to that pool.

That said, it is still possible that those laid off people were selected to let go because their stills aren't as needed as others inside that company (i.e. positions that only exist due to scale). That doesn't mean those people happen to be the ones that you'd need to seek someone else for. Assuming that all tech people have identical skills doesn't help the conversation.

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by jessaustin on Saturday June 20, 2020 @04:42PM (#23587116)
Well, then the government in the USA is wrong, because...

That's always true. You don't need to provide particulars.

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by theonemind on Saturday June 20, 2020 @02:52PM (#23585896)
The average H1B doesn't seem to have a PhD or get more than $100,000/yr (indicating that they can't do something that rare or valuable that you likely can't find in the American labor pool). It seems pretty clear to me that the program gets abused and Americans could fill most of those jobs. It does, of course, also fulfill its intended purpose of supplying skilled talent when/where Americans can't.
Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by neilparikh on Saturday June 20, 2020 @02:57PM (#23585957)
> get more than $100,000/yr

If this is objection, why not just raise the minimum salary requirements to 100k instead of banning it? Most Silicon Valley companies would easily meet it.

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by theonemind on Saturday June 20, 2020 @02:59PM (#23585978)
I would support that. The program is supposed to allow for filling positions unfillable in the American labor market with specialized skills, not as a way to undercut American salaries.
Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by neilparikh on Saturday June 20, 2020 @03:07PM (#23586086)
My point is that Trump isn’t pushing for that, and instead just suspending it completely, because his goal isn’t to reform H1Bs, so mentioning specific criticism of the program is irrelevant when the primary objection is idealogical.
Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by oneplane on Saturday June 20, 2020 @03:00PM (#23585997)
You don't need a Phd or a lot of money to have a skill that an American doesn't have. Assuming that those things are 'indicators' doesn't seem to be based on anything.

The difference here is that America has a large 'labour' pool, but the roles you need filled aren't as much just clocking in and out doing some random task, but have requirements that are harder to meet and apparently aren't met by the available Americans. Assuming malice isn't very constructive and to do something about it that actually helps anything needs some backing information.

The other way around: most people don't really want to work in the USA and will only go if the money is right. This also means that the company in the USA that is trying to find someone to fill a gap in their needs might have to spend twice as much getting their problem solved. At the same time, the amount of Americans asked to work outside of the USA is rather low as there aren't that many special skilled people that aren't already available. If you check out the sources listed at the WikiPedia page at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_diaspora you'll find that a lot of emigration happens for other reasons, and only a small part is related to special skills needed in emerging markets (which are markets that need a lot of skilled people but are not very attractive to a lot of people due to cultural differences or stability worries).

Re:Executive order expected to suspend H-1B, other visas unt... by mistursinistur on Saturday June 20, 2020 @02:51PM (#23585883)
Silly to say without evidence that preventing some people from doing their jobs somehow creates more jobs for other people. H1-B visa holders aren't competing with workers in the retail services industry!