Re:The Coming Chip Wars
by PeterisP on Thursday June 18, 2020 @07:00PM
(#23569090)
The only way how a WW3 could become an exinction level would be full Warsaw Pact - NATO war during the peak of the cold war; and even then it would be expected to be a horrible disaster, but not really an extinction level (e.g. killing 80% of population is a catastrophe, but far from extinction).
But now both USA and Russia have far less nukes (and with smaller yields) so now the effect of a full USA-Russia nuclear exchange would be much smaller - but we are not even talking about that; we're talking about China, which has something like 250 warheads (contrast to ~45000 warheads that USSR used to have, it's more than a hundredfold difference) - it's a sizeable deterrent, but it's not mutually assured destruction. MAD was the doctrine between USA and USSR or Russia; MAD does not apply for any other nuclear powers - China, France, UK, India, etc. A nuclear exchange with them is "only" mass murder, but nowhere close to an extinction level event.
But now both USA and Russia have far less nukes (and with smaller yields) so now the effect of a full USA-Russia nuclear exchange would be much smaller - but we are not even talking about that; we're talking about China, which has something like 250 warheads (contrast to ~45000 warheads that USSR used to have, it's more than a hundredfold difference) - it's a sizeable deterrent, but it's not mutually assured destruction. MAD was the doctrine between USA and USSR or Russia; MAD does not apply for any other nuclear powers - China, France, UK, India, etc. A nuclear exchange with them is "only" mass murder, but nowhere close to an extinction level event.