"Russian" is not only an ethnicity, but also a language (which is a proxy to culture and society values). According to the same Ukrainian census for 77% of Crimeans Russian was a native language. Rejection of forceful ukrainazization was one of the major driving forces behind protests in Crimea and Donbas.

I am more than certain that if Russian language was a second official language in Ukraine and rights of minorities were properly respected, then Crimea would have been still part of Ukraine and war in Donbas wouldn't have happened.

Plus note, that a significant number of people in Crimea (and in Ukraine) are of mixed blood, so they can easily change their ethnicity based on the current political situation.

I doubt ethnicity was the driving factor behind it, as much as growing NATO influence over Ukraine, in the years leading up to the conflict.

Russia does not want to lose its warm-water ports, or to be bordered by hostile countries. If Mexico made serious noises about joining an alliance with China, we'd see regime change before the week were out.

Yes, the main reason why it has happened is the strategic value of Crimea (Donbas was not so lucky in this regard...), but the overwhelming local support (which originated from factors like ethnicity, culture, language, poor Ukrainian rule, etc.) made everything much easier and cheaper for Russia. I highly doubt that with a hypothetical level of support 50% or lower Russia would have risked to take such action.

Russian language had status of official regional language in Crimea by the law: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD...

I think protests and exodus were result of TV propaganda, amount of disinformation was tremendeus, though Crimeans probably got better life within richer Russia.

Funny you mention this law, IIRC exactly its revoking has triggered the Crimean protests, which have opened a window of opportunity for Russia. And the new power in Kiev was actively hostile to Russia, so there was no hope for a better law. In a sense it was the last straw for Crimeans.

And even before that, Ukraine is a country in which 30% consider Russian a native language (according to the official census, so I consider it a lower bound) and more than 80% prefer to use it in daily live (the numbers should be lower now for obvious reasons, but the point still stands). It's simply ridiculous to not have Russian as an official language in such conditions. For comparison in Canada only 20% know French and still it's a full-fledged official language.

Law has not been revoked until 2018 though.

> It's simply ridiculous to not have Russian as an official language in such conditions.

They allowed Russian to be official regional language in regions where more than 10% population speaks Russian. Sounds reasonable to me.

Window of opportunity was caused by messed up government in Ukraine, which couldn't produce any resistance against Russia's military invasion.

Rada has voted in favor of revoking it in 2014: https://iportal.rada.gov.ua/ru/news/Novosty/Soobshchenyya/88...

It's exactly the same day when active protests in Crimea and Donbas have started. Yes, technically the law was still active, but it was just a delay due to the powerful backlash and people understood well intention of those who came into power.

>Sounds reasonable to me.

Wow... I guess let's agree to disagree here. Because for me a situation in which 80% people speak a language in daily life, but it's not an official one, looks more suitable for an occupation, than for a normal state. Can you name any other world country with a similar situation? (IIRC only Baltic states come somewhat close)

And let's be honest, "regional language status" was just breadcrumbs. Russian was systematically discriminated as a matter of state policy starting from TV and ending with schools, with situation only worsening over time.

>Window of opportunity was caused by messed up government in Ukraine, which couldn't produce any resistance against Russia's military invasion.

Don't forget about heavily demoralized military (and the protests have played a major part here), which didn't believe in the new government, and most of which accepted Russian terms and got integrated into its military. Also some say that the new government has intentionally allowed the situation around Crimea and Donbas to degrade, so a lot of pro-Russian electorate would be cut off from elections. But I guess gross incompetence is usually a better explanation.

> Yes, technically the law was still active, but it was just a delay due to the powerful backlash and people understood well intention of those who came into power.

Pure speculation.

> in which 80% people speak a language in daily life,

Citation needed.

> Don't forget about heavily demoralized military (and the protests have played a major part here), which didn't believe in the new government, and most of which accepted Russian terms and got integrated into its military.

Pure speculation.

> > in which 80% people speak a language in daily life,

> Citation needed.

According to Wikipedia, in May 2013 82% of respondents spoke Russian at home.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea#Ethnici...

Correct, and Russian was official in Crimea, but I was thinking previous commenter was talking about whole country, maybe I got confused.

> Rada has voted in favor of revoking it in 2014

Revoking of what? Russian language is protected by Constitution of Ukraine, as language of minority. Did you read what you posted?

> looks more suitable for an occupation, than for a normal state.

You are right, Crimea was occupied by Russian Empire and USSR. Natives (Tatars, Goths, Greeks, Italians, Turks, Ukrainians) are exhaled or exterminated.

> Don't forget about heavily demoralized military (and the protests have played a major part here)

Russian propaganda, in Russian language, played major role. Russian Federation planned to attack Ukraine since 2008, preparing for occupation of Crimea and creation of "Newrussia". As former officer of intelligence, I knew about planned protests controlled by RF (AKA "Шатун") in 2012.