Tangential, but a while ago I got really into sports gambling - mostly golf. And a rather unique thing about golf is that there are over 100 players in the field, and only one can win (and obviously there are other things to bet on besides the winner) but it's supremely important to internalize the fact that you can make very good decisions and still lose most of the time. You can't tell how your strategy has played out until you've got enough trials under your belt.

In any situation where you're trying to make a prediction, the best you can do is to make a decision based on available information, and then try to update based on outcomes, but being wrong in retrospect is absolutely not equal to having made a bad choice. It's, frankly, shocking to me how often someone will witness one bad outcome and accuse the person involved of being an idiot and making the obviously wrong choice.

There is a fair amount of research into group dynamics and group decision making, specifically in the context of alpinism. For example [1], written in English, from the "Berg und Steigen" blog.

In general, I can't recommend German-language "Berg und Steigen" magazine enough. It's focuses on safety and risk management in mountain-related activities (mountaineering, indoor/outdoor climbing, skiing, ski touring, mountain biking, ...). Older issues become completely freely accessible in their archive [2].

[1] https://www.bergundsteigen.blog/human-factor-and-decision-ma... [2] https://www.bergundsteigen.at/?module=archiv/ausgaben

The American Alpine Club produces an annual publication called "Accidents in North American Mountaineering" that collects and presents case studies of climbing[1] accidents, often with some analysis.

When I was a more active climber, I read it religiously every year. It was very interesting and I definitely learned some important safety lessons I put to good use in my own activities.

[1] All types, not just mountaineering

Same. Had a very successful expedition on Denali; until we reached high camp. Making great time, beautiful conditions, strong team, great chemistry, and very little issues with altitude.

Then, the shiteth has hitteth the fan. Socked in for a few days with no weather window. Had to bail, with the summit in reach.

Lesson learned, the mountain will always be there.

Try "the shite hitteth the fan" or "the shite hath hit the fan", although I'd probably go with "the shite doth hit the fan".

To wit:

'the shit hit the fan' → 'the shite hit the fan'

'the shit hits the fan' → 'the shite hitteth the fan'

'the shit has hit the fan' → 'the shite hath hit the fan'

You could also throw in an archaic alternate spelling of 'hit' ('hitt' or 'hitte') or 'fan' ('fann' or 'fanne'). Or spell 'the' as 'ye', though that's really older than the Shakespeare/King James Bible thing, and it's always pronounced as 'the', with no 'y' sound https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorn_(letter) .

"fan the shite doth hit"