There are only so many people, so the growth rate can't stay exponential forever. Eventually it must look like an S-curve.
Right. An S-curve starts out looking exponential. Then begins looking rather linear in the vicinity of the inflection point. And later bends over. If you are in the midst of it then it might be hard to predict the shape of the curve.
Re:Covid-19: The T Cell Story
by leptoniscool on Wednesday June 17, 2020 @10:04PM
(#23559041)
Are you able to share the code for this model?
I suspect this might be a topological condition (i.e. the due to the distribution of connections) that limits the growth, in the same way a rope will burn linearly if you set fire to one end of it. Of course, a society is more connected than a rope (in the sense we usually have more contacts that just 'up the rope' and 'down the rope'), but continuing exponential growth requires 'fresh' connections at each generation (so no cycles in the graph) - maybe this limits the acceleration of the epidemic.