> The fact that Hertz is up like 200% since the beginning of the month means that the traders are, in fact, rational.

You aren't factoring in time here... just because a stock has gone up over a specific period of time doesn't mean everyone who bought the stock did the right thing. What if the price collapses tomorrow?

Also, a good outcome for an action doesn't mean taking it was rational. If I place my life savings on black in a game of roulette, there is an 9/19 chance that I double my money. If I do, it doesn't mean I was rational to make that bet. It means I was lucky.