Re:I'm Married to an ER Doc in NYC
by gizmo on Thursday June 11, 2020 @06:48AM
(#23487397)
You have to torture the data pretty badly to come to that conclusion. In deaths per million those states have vastly outperformed and after the dust has settled they will still have way fewer deaths per million compared to those states where politicians panicked, issued full lockdowns, and sent covid patients to care homes.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
As far as spread/death differences, population density was a clear multiplier, as would be expected. Policy effects weren’t seen in early days because there were no policy differences, just population density and global travel ones.
The rise differential now is the first good example of measurement of policy effects.
These are not political points, just data points.
What does population density mean? Number of people per household square footage? Number of people per household? Number of people per zipcode? City/rural? Population density is not a consistent predictor of covid19 spread by any of these measures, unless you also start taking other factors into account. Density matters "intuitively", but it's not borne out by the data.