The US did not lock down. A portion opted to stay at home if they could afford it, several industries were deemed essential (often with ridiculous inclusions), and the brunt is being borne by folks in poverty. We had between 40% and 60% reduction in urban mobility, much less in rural areas, and an increase in stay at home rates on par with a census block groups median household income. Then we re-opened too early. This is why there is no endgame in site.
Re:I'm Married to an ER Doc in NYC
by hcknwscommenter on Thursday June 11, 2020 @02:30AM
(#23485776)
There is totally an endgame. Lockdown worked in NYC. That is huge. NYC is crushing the curve. 1 in 600 people in NYC have died of COVID (NOT GOOD). However, it is estimated that 1 in 5 is already immune. That's great news! A huge step towards herd immunity.
It means NYC must do this three times more to get to herd immunity, and strike the right balance each time. Still it is far from safe since people can come from the rest of the country so it’s not a real herd immunity.
Re:I'm Married to an ER Doc in NYC
by hcknwscommenter on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @01:18PM
(#23541587)
Your comment implies that "do[ing] this three times more" would be very difficult. That's totally incorrect. As the level of immunity rises, R0 goes down naturally. The effect is huge at even 20%. Giant at 50%, etc., especially with moderate social distancing. Moreover, there is every reason to believe that some people are just naturally resistant/immune to the virus. I believe Bergamo never got above 57% sero-positivity and even the USS Rosevelt was around 60% sero-positivity. It seems impossible to believe the other 40% weren't exposed. If (okay a big BIG if) 40% just don't ever get COVID, and 50% get it but have mild moderate symptoms (the data strongly supports this), NYC is basically done with this emergency.
Will they be immune in one year? Two?
Re:I'm Married to an ER Doc in NYC
by hcknwscommenter on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @01:20PM
(#23541608)
The data on long-term immunity for COVID is non-existent, that is why the experts are being cautious. However, the data on animal coronavirus vaccines (not COVID) is very suggestive that yes they will be immune in a year and two. Coronaviruses do mutate but do not mutate like the flu virus does.
Re:I'm Married to an ER Doc in NYC
by SamReidHughes on Thursday June 11, 2020 @01:53AM
(#23485586)
On the other hand, with social distancing and masks, herd immunity comes at a lower level, even if mask-wearers still suffer >1 R0. So vastly fewer people die.
Simplistically, we don't want to lockdown or distance until we get to whatever that herd immunity level is. And then, a bit past that level, we might want to lockdown hard and then ease up to a steady-state lockdown, and then hold it there until the disease has passed.
The reason we'd lockdown hard and ease up is because, well, a continuity argument -- more lives are saved if you do a week of hard lockdown when 1000000 people are infected than if you wait until 10 cases remain.
how come? wouldn't without lockdown the herd immunity with that R0 would come in like 2-3 months (and during that period the vulnerable people would have to be locked down), while with lockdown we're already 3 months into it without reasonable lockdown based endgame in sight?