Am I the only one to consider US massive economy as a lightyear remain ? It really seems that US (politics or companies) lost their ways and can't handle their own power. Inertia is not good enough.

The US economy has produced multiple new world-changing businesses every decade in living memory. The idea that it's solely coasting on inertia just doesn't make much sense.

Probably, I have only shallow gut feelings about this, but the financial blunders, the changes in education and technological differences around the globe (asia is becoming more and more independant and creative), the very very strange political state.. I'm not sure the thing will hold itself. I have this model where everything is non linear and if you stop claiming your position on the ladder, everything else will evaporate under your feet.

But what Trump represents to allies is not just an oscilating to conservative control. It represents the willingness of the american public to put someone in charge of foreign policy that has a complete disrespect for America’s allies, and a strong willingness to turn America more isolationist and less supportive of free trade.

Ultimately, I don’t think Trump alone will really effect things long term though, no. If it becomes a pattern in the sort of person the conservative party elects, or even more so if the liberal part also swings that way, other countries could definitely start banding together more strongly against the American hegemony.

When Germans elect a Chancellor who doesn't make sure that Germany meet their NATO commitments are they being disrespectful to their allies? I understand that the comment may come off a bit incendiary, but I'm genuinely asking.

In as much as the other members of NATO (particularly the US, who is the primary funder of NATO) care about those commitments, yes. Which is to say, I’m not sure how much it maters historically when the US did not seem to particularly care. Now that the US has brought up the matter, to not make an effort to spend more is disrespectful to me.

(But the concept of disrespect aside, I would consider allies not fulfilling the agreements of a treaty made to lower my trust in them to fulfill the obligations of current and future agreements. And that trust is also quite important.)

In fact they don't tweet like a crazy man

They use official channels

Which is the respectful way

We're in a cold war with China and our manufacturing base has eroded over the past 40 years thanks to free trade. Now we are in a relatively weak position to be fighting a cold war. Say what you will about Trump, but he did start calling out China with his 2016 run. I have no doubts about the U.S.'s adaptability but often times we have to get punched in the face before we really appreciate the gravity of the situation. Covid was that punch. If free trade costs you your autonomy and resiliency, then it's not worth it.

Functionally, I agree with you on China in many respects. Ultimately no trade with them is really free trade regardless due to the way they manage their own economy. The problem with Trump in this regard is that he didn’t just call out China. He called out everyone, starting trade wars not just with China, but Mexico, Canada, more general sweeping sets of tarrifs, and also weakening our alliances separately. And this is a big deal if one actually wants to take on China economically. A big block of allies all getting into a trade war with China would have a substantially higher chance of success than the US just going it alone. Instead it was just us vs them and nothing really came of it. The cold war was not just US vs USSR. It was the western bloc vs the eastern bloc, and all other allies those groups picked up along the way. And any geopolitical fight between entities the size of China and the US would need to be carried out similarly to be successful.

To the final point on whether free trade is worth it, that’s a decision that can be made. But it is a decision, and would have pretty extreme effects on the US’s standing on the world stage, along with tons of other knock on effects on how the economy works. Whether that’s a trade off that’s worth it is a much more complicated discussion, but certainly far from simple.

> American politics oscillates between periods of conservative control and liberal control

Trump is not a conservative, and he's not enacting especially conservative policies.

He plays those conservative wedge issues masterfully, though. It works.