Re:Humanities aren't a science and shouldn't be treated like...
by Mirioron on Saturday June 06, 2020 @11:10AM
(#23439702)
>We can't predict how one person will react to a situation. But sometimes we can estimate, on average, how a large group of people will react.
I think the issue here is very similar to the one in predicting the weather. The uncertainty of our models increases so quickly that we can only predict a relatively short amount of time ahead (in the case of weather it's about 1 week [0]). We can see patterns in human behavior, but the uncertainty just grows too quickly for long-term predictions. Small things that are hard to account for can make a big difference in where even large groups of people end up at.
I think the issue here is very similar to the one in predicting the weather. The uncertainty of our models increases so quickly that we can only predict a relatively short amount of time ahead (in the case of weather it's about 1 week [0]). We can see patterns in human behavior, but the uncertainty just grows too quickly for long-term predictions. Small things that are hard to account for can make a big difference in where even large groups of people end up at.
[0] https://www.yourweather.co.uk/news/science/long-range-weathe...