This is a strawman!
[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY [1] https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/folkhalsomyndigheten-drar... [2] https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/3Jyxmq/flockimmunitet-i...
A lot of people have been talking about herd immunity, but FHM has been quite clear from the start that they don’t think herd immunity will make Corona go away.
A lot of people have been talking about herd immunity, but
FHM has been quite clear from the start that they don’t
think herd immunity will make Corona go away.
Here is an interview with Anders Tegnell from 16. march:
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/6j7vaO/anders-tegnell-h...
Flockimmunitet skulle därmed även kunna bli aktuellt i Sverige.
– Vi har varit lite försiktiga med att använda det ordet för det andas ju lite att man har gett upp och det är ju inte alls det som det är frågan om, säger Anders Tegnell.
– Men grundtanken börjar nog bli mer och mer relevant ju mer vi ser av det här viruset, att det är dit vi behöver komma. Vi kommer inte att få kontroll på det på något annat sätt.
Translation:
Herd immunity could therefore also be relevant for Sweden
- We have been a little careful using that word [herd immunity], as it sounds a little like we have given up, and that's not true at all, says Tegnell.
- But the basic idea becomes more and more relevant the more we see of this virus. We need to reach herd immunity. We are not going to be able to control this virus in any other way.
In Sweden the policy is to mostly let people do what they want (at least when compared to other countries), unless they're in a risk group then they should take some additional measures. You expose people that don't have a big risk of getting seriously ill to a disease, they become immune and the risk group can reduce their additional measures. I would say that's pretty similar to herd immunity even without it being explicitly called that. Right now I think that's an acceptable strategy[0], when this started there maybe were too many unknowns to go down this route?
[0] There are some unstated assumptions here such as how long people would be immune against it, how many people have serious complications afterwards but don't die and so on, so it's definitely debatable.
Both Johan Giesecke (a consultant for Folkhälsomyndigheten, which is Tegnell's workplace) and Anders Tegnell has repeatedly been saying, that modelling suggests, herd immunity will occur in may.
Along with many others, who are working at the Karolinska Institute, that are closely cooperating with Folkhälsomyndigheten, like the the professors Jan Albert, Anders Björkman and Tom Britton.
Here is Johan Giesecke saying it in english: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOxITQQ8F3w
He apparently billed Folkhälsomyndigheten (FHM) for some of his interviews, as he thought himself speaking for FHM.
FHM refused to pay after a journalist inquired into it. They said that interviews was not part of Giesecke's responsibilities. He answered that he had discussed the interviews and what he was going to say, with people in FHM, and therefore considered them part of his consultancy contract.
Here is Tegnell saying there will be herd immunity in may, in swedish: https://www.nrk.no/urix/tegnell_-_-det-kan-bli-flokkimmunite...
The situation is a mess, and it feels as though many people are trying to muddle the waters, by spreading confusion.
https://i.imgur.com/Wca1VeY.png
I'm not sure what changed.
As far as I can see, calling Tegnell a scientist is incorrect. He may have a Ph.D but does decisively not behave scientifically. Instead he should should be called a bureaucrat, which much better describes his behavior.
The catastrophe that is swedish covid-19 strategy, probably started as something like this: http://www.openias.org/swedens-covid19-strategy
They believed Covid-19 was much more infectious and much fewer people were seriously affected, than we now believe.
This was understandable at the time, since it's known that early on in an epidemic only serious cases are noted, and so infectiousness is underestimated and mortality usually overestimated. However, towards march it became definitely clear for most everybody else that covid-19 was fairly serious for many people and the Chinese mortality numbers were not vastly exaggerated.
Because of his belief in an exaggerated infectiousness, Tegnell believed herd immunity would be reached fairly fast. Most of april Tegnell spent on justifying his faulty assumptions, believing herd immunity was to be had in Stockholm in may. To justify this, they used highly dubious modelling and wishful thinking: https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/125408476749626163...
Sweden currently is now sitting in a horrible quagmire. The infection is still uncontrolled and mortality, though below its peak, is still significant. Testing infrastructure has still not been built out, and is still not done on all symptomatic cases. Likely because the infection was seen as having a similar severity to flu, and therefore it was presumed better to just stay home for a few days, than to go and get tested.
Tegnell can not admit having been wrong, because of bureaucratic honor. The population which are, like in all other countries, generally not very scientifically literate or interested, have not quite fully grasped the situation. But judging by the latest polls of confidence in the government, many are starting to suspect something is not quite right.
I fully support a very open debate, and believe all opinions have a right to be heard. But the Swedish situation should not be confused with science. It saddens me to say, that only very few countries have been more passive, bureaucratic and unscientific handling this crisis. And that seems to have cost quite many lives and much suffering for swedes.