I like to remind people that in 2008, Bear Stearns fell in March. Most of the the economy didn't realize the financial system problems until late August.

I'm waiting for a very large shoe to drop in a few months. How big will depend on whether consumers feel comfortable about their jobs+health.

The turnarounds always happen quickly after the fed takes serious action. Consider the 2008 crisis, or take 1933 (I believe?) when we broke from the gold standard: immediate exit from the Great Depression.

The fed and congress have been very on point with the stimulus response speed this time around and so I think we’ve seen the bottom of the market through this. And most investors are voting with their dollars that this is true.

(I’m just parroting Ray Dalio.)

Titanic Syndrome. Everything's going under, but the people on the upper decks are still enjoying their late-night cigars while the boiler crew is drowning. It's an interesting phenomenon (and, I'm sure, has a better name than the one I just made up).

I wanna say, "There we go," but this is slightly different. Not so much that one failure unexpectedly causes total collapse down the line, more so that a catastrophic failure of important components (which obviously are going to cause a system collapse to anyone who knows what happened) happens in a system so large that other portions of that doomed system are not even aware.

> How big will depend on whether consumers feel comfortable about their jobs+health.

This is a very frightening sentence because obviously not many consumers feel comfortable about either right now.

Probably. Though with some weird details. I'm actually getting paid more right now being "furloughed", with the approval of my employer and (tacitly) the state. When the "don't work" bonus ends, I'll revert to full time.

> Probably. Though with some weird details. I'm actually getting paid more right now being "furloughed", with the approval of my employer and (tacitly) the state. When the "don't work" bonus ends, I'll revert to full time.

I think a lot of people haven't realized that for many workers, being furloughed or having your hours reduced can result in an effective raise under the current Coronavirus aid package.

A friend's company furloughed everyone on Fridays. She was disappointed at first, until she realized this hours reduction qualified her for the $600/week Coronavirus aid. Now she's making more money, working less, and enjoying 3-day weekends.

Now everyone at her company is trying to convince management to continue the Friday furlough until the $600/week stimulus runs out.

This is why I don't trust the unemployment claim numbers until after July. Too many perverse incentives to increase the number of claims.

I feel like the perverse uplift will be more than offset by the people still working for soon to be bankrupt companies.

this is true. will probably happen at my workplace as well unfortunately. the PPP was a stopgap which helped a bit, but sales are still not back to normal to help pay for full staff.

My company, an experiencial ad agency, furloughed all but 2 people in every non-finance Dept March 23, rehires everyone with big paycuts (me, 37% cut) April 27 through PPP.

No new business was able to be drummed up and now massive lay offs of 90% of the US offices starting June 15 with a paycheck severance so effectively June 30. The EU offices have faired better with more work, and few layoffs of only receptionists.

All and all it’s bleak for the events industry. I’m sure that a lot of convention centers, caterers, AV rental houses, independent producers, PAs, will all be on the dole and you’ll see a huge spike in unemployment on Aug 1.